Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?
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The question is whether “Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?” occurs by the stated deadline and under the published conditions.
A Yes outcome requires the stated conditions to be met; No covers the alternative.
The qualifying event, evidence source, cutoff time, and any exceptions are documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.