Iran leadership change by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Iran leadership change?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are September 30, October 31, March 31, March 13, August 22, May 31, August 15, July 31, April 30, August 31, June 30, June 30, 2027, November 30, and December 31.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.