AliensaliensPoliticspolitics
Each outcome asks whether “Will the US confirm that aliens exist?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are June 30, May 31, March 31, April 30, September 30, and December 31.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Each outcome asks whether “Will the US confirm that aliens exist?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are June 30, May 31, March 31, April 30, September 30, and December 31.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.