

Each outcome asks whether “Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are December 31, 2025, December 31, 2026, June 30, 2027, and March 31, 2027.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
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May 25, 2026 · 7:44pm GMT+3
Jan 1, 2027 · 7:59am GMT+3
Jan 1, 2027 · 8:29am GMT+3
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.