Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are September 30, 2026, June 30, 2027, and December 31, 2026.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.
Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.