

Each outcome asks whether “Mike Johnson out as Speaker?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are June 30, 2026, December 31, 2025, September 30, 2026, March 31, 2026, October 31, 2026, July 31, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
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May 25, 2026 · 7:43pm GMT+3
Jan 1, 2027 · 7:59am GMT+3
Jan 1, 2027 · 8:29am GMT+3
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.