Calculator
Use the checklist before you commit real size, not after a dispute appears. The highest-value output is the blocker list because it tells you what must be clarified before the trade deserves more capital.
Market details
Required checks
Leave a box unchecked if you have not personally confirmed it.
Cross-market only
Use this section when you are hedging across platforms or linked contracts.
Notes
Platform: Polymarket Market: Will the Fed cut rates by July? Official source: Federal Reserve statement page Readiness: Needs review Checklist score: 6/9 Blockers: none Warnings: Void or cancellation rules were not reviewed. | Appeal or dispute rules were not reviewed. | Complementary market wording is not fully confirmed. Notes: Compare market wording, exact cutoff timestamp, timezone, and void rules before legging into the trade.
This checklist helps you document the trade review. Official rules and resolution text still win.
Table of Contents
Why resolution review matters more than most traders think
Prediction markets compress a lot of legal and operational detail into a short market title. The trade may look simple on the surface, but settlement depends on definitions, official sources, timestamps, and venue-specific void or dispute rules.
That means a market can be directionally correct and still operationally dangerous. Traders who skip the rules often discover too late that they were trading a different contract than the one they thought they understood.
- Ambiguous wording creates interpretation risk.
- Different venues can define the same event differently.
- Missing timezone or cutoff rules can change the outcome entirely.
- Void and dispute paths matter when the event becomes messy.
How to use the checklist before a trade
Start by documenting the exact market title and official source. Then confirm whether the question is unambiguous, whether the source is public, and whether the cutoff time and timezone are written clearly enough that another trader would reach the same interpretation.
For cross-platform setups, add one more step: prove the wording is complementary or equivalent instead of assuming it. Similar-looking contracts can differ in ways that break a hedge.
- 1Capture the market title and official source in writing.
- 2Check wording, cutoff, timezone, void rules, and dispute rules.
- 3If the trade spans venues, confirm wording parity explicitly.
- 4Save the summary with the trade so the reasoning survives later review.
Worked resolution example
Imagine you want to hedge a Fed-related market between two platforms. One contract says "by July" and the other says "before the July meeting concludes." The prices may look complementary, but the wording difference could change settlement if the event lands near the deadline.
The checklist forces that problem into the open before you call the setup safe. A single blocker such as missing timezone clarity is often enough reason to skip the trade or reduce it dramatically.
- Different phrasing can create non-equivalent markets.
- A blocker is not a minor issue; it is a trade-structure problem.
- Saved notes matter when you later review whether the trade process was sound.
Common mistakes in resolution review
The most common mistake is reading only the headline title and ignoring the rule detail. The second is assuming the official source is obvious when it is not written clearly. The third is failing to preserve notes, which makes later review or dispute handling much harder.
Another frequent failure happens in cross-venue arbitrage: traders verify price math carefully but never verify whether the two contracts actually resolve under the same logic.
- Assuming similarity instead of proving parity
- Ignoring cutoff and timezone detail
- Skipping void or dispute rules because they seem unlikely
- Not saving written notes for future review
If a blocker remains unresolved, treat the market as high risk. Price edge does not compensate for a contract you may not fully understand.
Sources
These references support the assumptions and workflow guidance on this page. Always verify current platform rules before relying on a calculator preset.
Official Polymarket help page describing market resolution mechanics and outcomes.
Kalshi documentation on market rules, settlement, and how contracts are defined.
Frequently Asked Questions
Short, practical answers to the questions readers usually ask after learning how prediction markets price, trade, and settle.