SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?
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The question is whether “SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?” occurs by the stated deadline and under the published conditions.
A Yes outcome requires the stated conditions to be met; No covers the alternative.
The qualifying event, evidence source, cutoff time, and any exceptions are documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.