DOJ criminally charges NVIDIA by December 31?
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A Yes outcome requires the stated conditions to be met; No covers the alternative.
The qualifying event, evidence source, cutoff time, and any exceptions are documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Justice formally charges, files a criminal complaint against, or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of NVIDIA Corporation or any of its subsidiaries or successors between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A federal criminal complaint, information, or indictment naming NVIDIA Corporation or any of its subsidiaries or successors as a defendant will qualify. Charges filed under seal will qualify only once they are unsealed or publicly announced by the US federal government within this market's timeframe, regardless of when they were originally filed.
Charges under any federal criminal statute will qualify (for example, criminal antitrust violations under the Sherman Act, export-control or sanctions violations, violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), or fraud). Civil enforcement actions, including civil FARA or civil antitrust actions, will not qualify.
A qualifying charge need not result in a conviction. This market will resolve to "Yes" even if the charge is later dismissed, reduced, or resolved through a deferred prosecution agreement, so long as it was filed or announced by the date specified above. Charges solely against individuals, including NVIDIA executives or Alice Huang, investigations, subpoenas, sanctions designations, and administrative export-control penalties will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.