Next Fable Model (5.3+) released by...?
Amount
Buy
Next Gemini Carbon (4.1+) released on...?What will the next Gemini model family be named?Gemini Helix released by...?
FAA outage attributed to AI?What technical failure caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?FAA outage attributed to an AI sandbox escape?FAA outage attributed to hack?FAA outage attributed to a foreign actor?FAA outage attributed to Iran?
Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by...?Will Jensen Huang post again on X by...?Where will Jensen Huang work next?
How many Jensen Huang affairs will be reported by December 31?Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by...?Jensen Huang rejoins NVIDIA by...?
DOJ criminally charges NVIDIA by December 31?
Another NVIDIA board member announced resignation or removal by...?Will Jensen Huang found a new company by December 31, 2026?Next NVIDIA CEO: internal or external?Jensen Huang admits to another affair with a woman by December 31?Each outcome asks whether “Next Fable Model (5.3+) released?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are January 31, December 31, and February 28.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.3+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.3 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.3 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 5.2 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.3, such as Claude Fable 5.2 or Claude Mythos 5.2, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.