Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are March 31, June 30, and December 31.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.