Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
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Each outcome asks whether “Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are September 30, March 31, October 31, June 15, December 31, June 30, July 31, and August 31.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.