The 2026 IPO landscape is shaping up to be a defining year for tech, fintech, and software heavyweights. While some companies are widely expected to list soon, others may push their debuts into 2027.
Instead of relying on rumors or static reports, this guide combines operational context with prediction market probabilities—a data-informed way to think about IPO timing and execution risk.
Below you’ll find:
- A snapshot of top listing candidates
- Market-implied probability data
- Real-time sentiment analysis
- A framework for using probability in your investment strategy
Snapshot: Key IPO Candidates
| Company | Est. Valuation | Target Timing | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (xAI) | ~$1.5 Trillion | H2 2026 | Aerospace / AI |
| OpenAI | ~$830B – $1T | Late 2026 | Generative AI |
| Anthropic | ~$380 Billion | Mid–Late 2026 | Enterprise AI |
| Stripe | ~$100 Billion | H1 2026 | Fintech |
| Databricks | ~$134 Billion | Mid 2026 | Data Infrastructure |
| Revolut | ~$75 Billion | Likely 2027 | Fintech / Banking |
| Canva | ~$45 Billion | H2 2026 | SaaS / Design |
| Discord | ~$7B – $15B | Q1/Q2 2026 | Social / Communications |
| Lovable.dev | ~$6.6 Billion | Late 2026 | AI Software |
Note: These are not forecasts of price performance. They are candidates widely discussed by investors based on private funding, brand reach, and potential profitability trajectories.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into probability estimates for real-world events. While not perfect forecasts, they offer forward-looking sentiment that adapts faster than quarterly reports or private market valuations.
Market-Implied Probability (Snapshot)
At the time of writing, traders are pricing the following likelihoods for a 2026 listing:
| Company | Probability | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Discord | 92% | Strong near-term confidence |
| Cerebras | 86% | Very high expectation |
| SpaceX | 85% | High probability of listing |
| Anthropic | 68% | Moderate confidence |
| Canva | 62% | Meaningful probability |
| Ledger | 60% | Mid-range likelihood |
| Databricks | 52% | Market sees it as a toss-up |
| OpenAI | 48% | Slightly less than even odds |
| Stripe | 16% | Low confidence for 2026 |
| Revolut | 22% | Longer timeline expected |
Probabilities indicate the collective market confidence that an IPO will occur before the end of 2026.
The widget below displays real-time data from the "IPOs before 2027" market. This market resolves to "Yes" if a company completes an initial public offering (or direct listing) by December 31, 2026.
AI Sector IPOs: Probability and Practical Outlook
SpaceX + xAI
The market places SpaceX’s IPO likelihood near 85%, suggesting a strong consensus for a listing this cycle. This high confidence is driven by:
- Strategic synergies between Starlink and AI initiatives.
- Ongoing funding momentum and need for liquid capital.
- Broad investor awareness and demand.
However, regulatory review and the complexity of its operations mean SpaceX is not a certainty until the S-1 is filed.
OpenAI
OpenAI’s implied probability of ~48% is telling. It suggests the market sees a significant chance that OpenAI will not IPO before the end of 2026. This skepticism aligns with known challenges:
- Extremely heavy capital requirements.
- Uncertainty around profitability at scale.
- Complex governance structure.
Investors should view this as a balanced, conditional probability. The path to IPO may easily extend into 2027 depending on market conditions and AI monetization speed.
Anthropic
With probabilities near 68%, Anthropic is viewed as reasonably likely to list. Its strong enterprise focus and revenue models may provide a clearer path to public market readiness compared to more consumer-heavy AI firms.
Platform IPOs: Discord, Canva, & Databricks
Discord
At ~92%, Discord is the clear favorite for a near-term debut. This tracks with its mature user base, robust revenue growth from Nitro, and a clear monetization path that public market investors understand.
Canva
Canva’s probability of ~62% indicates modest confidence. As a profitable SaaS giant with global penetration, it is fundamental-ready, but timing remains the main variable.
Databricks and Ledger
Databricks (52%) and Ledger (60%) sit in the middle range. These probabilities reflect operational maturity but also highlight uncertainty around the exact timing. Traders are split on whether 2026 is the year or if they wait for more favorable rates.
How to Use This Data
Here’s a practical framework for incorporating prediction market data into your analysis:
- Timing Strategy: If you care about when exposure occurs, use probabilities to plan. Higher probabilities suggest earlier listing windows.
- Risk Adjustment: If you are valuing a private company at a premium today, a lower IPO probability adds illiquidity risk to that valuation.
- Portfolio Sequencing: Watch probability trends over time. A sudden drop in probability often precedes news of delays or regulatory issues.
Tip: Prediction markets should be one tool in your toolkit—not the only one. Combine them with fundamental analysis.
Structural Risks to Watch
Even high-probability events can be delayed. Keep an eye on these structural risks:
- Regulatory Reviews: SEC scrutiny can pause timelines indefinitely.
- Market Volatility: A sudden market downturn usually freezes the IPO window.
- Strategic Shifts: Companies may choose to raise more private capital or pursue acquisitions instead.
Prediction markets react in real time to these shifts, but they are not immune to volatility themselves.
Objective Evaluation Checklist
When actual filings (S-1s) eventually appear, look beyond the hype:
- Revenue Recurrence: Is income predictable quarter to quarter?
- Margin Trends: Are costs stabilizing as the company scales?
- Capital Position: Will cash reserves sustain a long runway without immediate dilution?
- Customer Mix: Is revenue concentrated in a few clients or diversified?
- Governance: Is the share structure investor-friendly?
Final Thoughts
2026 could deliver some of the most notable IPOs in years, but certainty is never guaranteed. Prediction market data provides a real-time, crowd-informed lens into likelihood, helping you refine your timing and risk assumptions.
A high valuation means little if the timing risk is high. A strong probability signal supported by solid fundamentals yields the best framework for navigating the upcoming IPO wave.