The outcomes break “伊朗领导层变更截止...??” into 14 separately evaluated possibilities.
The market includes 14 possibilities, including September 30, October 31, June 30, 2027, and March 31.
Each listed possibility follows the qualifying conditions, evidence source, and timing documented in the Resolution Rules below.
Waiting for trades
Last 30 days
$1.15M
30-day total
$38.2K
Daily average
Every trader on this market, last 7 days
—
24h volume, market-wide
Market-wide, by position value
5 19, 2026 · 23:54 GMT+3
1 1, 2027 · 07:59 GMT+3
1 1, 2027 · 08:29 GMT+3
此市场将结算为"Yes",如果伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊在市场创建到列出的日期(ET)之间的任何时间不再成为伊朗的实际领袖。否则,此市场将结算为"No"。
穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊在以下情况下将被视为不再担任伊朗的实际领袖:他被解除权力、被拘留,或失去其职位,或被阻止在该市场的时间框架内担任伊朗的实际领袖。
官方宣布穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊辞职或解职将符合"Yes"结算条件,无论宣布的离职何时生效。
此市场的主要结算来源将是可信报道的共识。