

Each outcome asks whether “Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are December 31, 2026 and March 31, 2027.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
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thg 10 31, 2026 · 01:34 GMT+3
thg 1 1, 2027 · 07:59 GMT+3
thg 1 1, 2027 · 08:29 GMT+3
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bogdan Święczkowski is reinstated as President of the Constitutional Tribunal of Poland by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
If Bogdan Święczkowski is otherwise permanently removed from office, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify as reinstated, Święczkowski must officially regain his powers as President of the Constitutional Tribunal and no longer be suspended from office.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Government of Poland, specifically the Constitutional Tribunal, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.