Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are October 31, June 30, March 31, November 30, November 7, December 31, 2026, and December 31, 2027.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.