Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are November 30, November 6, December 31, and November 13.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Speaker of the 26th Knesset is elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An individual serving as, appointed as, or deemed to be acting or temporary Speaker will not trigger a "Yes" resolution to this market. Only the successful election of the first Speaker of the 26th Knesset will result in this market's resolving to "Yes".
This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a Speaker of the 26th Knesset is successfully elected. Otherwise, this market may not resolve until its expiration time passes.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset and the Government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.