Best Picture Outlook
One Battle After Another
Strongest implied probability with a clear spread over the next closest nominee.
Win Probability76%
98th Academy Awards·
Oscars
2026 Predictions
Live Countdown
0Days
:00Hrs
:00Min
:00Sec
Trade on the real-time odds for the 98th Academy Awards. From Best Picture to Costume Design — every category, live.
Best Picture
Who will take home the biggest prize of the night?
Chasing Pack
Top ChallengersWhere the next-best entries sit if the leader loses momentum.
76%AI predictionLeader hold chance
Closest Threat
Sinners
Leader Cushion
62 pts
Challenger Pool
20%
Sinners
13.5% · 62 pts back
7.41x odds
+$641
Hamnet
4.6% · 71 pts back
21.74x odds
+$2,074
Marty Supreme
2.3% · 73 pts back
43.48x odds
+$4,248
AI forecast sits at 76% for the leader. Challenger odds average 24.21x with $100 stakes returning between +$641 and +$4,248.
One Battle After Another
Bet placed • 76% chance
1.32x
Sinners
Bet placed • 14% chance
7.41x
Hamnet
Bet placed • 5% chance
21.74x
One Battle After Another
Bet placed • 76% chance
1.32x
Sinners
Bet placed • 14% chance
7.41x
Hamnet
Bet placed • 5% chance
21.74x
PARIFLOWOne Battle After Another
Resolved • stake $70
+$22
Sinners
Resolved • stake $95
+$609
Hamnet
Resolved • stake $120
+$2,489
One Battle After Another
Resolved • stake $70
+$22
Sinners
Resolved • stake $95
+$609
Hamnet
Resolved • stake $120
+$2,489
Turn Suggestions To Profits
Predict who wins the Oscar and earn profits from guessing outcomes.
Make Prediction
Choose a favorable outcome and place your order.
One Battle After Another
$100+$32
Sinners
$100+$641
Hamnet
$100+$2,074
Marty Supreme
$100+$4,248
One Battle After Another
$100+$32
Sinners
$100+$641
Hamnet
$100+$2,074
Marty Supreme
$100+$4,248
Sinners
$300+$1,923
Hamnet
$300+$6,222
Marty Supreme
$300+$12,744
One Battle After Another
$300+$96
Sinners
$300+$1,923
Hamnet
$300+$6,222
Marty Supreme
$300+$12,744
One Battle After Another
$300+$96
Hamnet
$500+$10,370
Marty Supreme
$500+$21,240
One Battle After Another
$500+$160
Sinners
$500+$3,205
Hamnet
$500+$10,370
Marty Supreme
$500+$21,240
One Battle After Another
$500+$160
Sinners
$500+$3,205
Trade anytime from any device.
All Contenders
4 Total1One Battle After Another
76%2Sinners
14%3Hamnet
5%4Marty Supreme
2%
Trade Best Picture
Current market average for top four nominees sits at 24%. Enter where the spread and payout profile matches your risk target.
Live Market Chart
One Battle…0%
Sinners0%
Hamnet0%
Marty Supr…0%
Same real-time odds feed as the Best Picture event page.
Best Supporting Actor
The race for best supporting performance by an actor.
Best Supporting Actress
The frontrunners for best supporting actress.
Best Costume Design
Which film had the most impressive costumes?
Frontrunner
Costume Design
Frankenstein
Win Probability89%
Frankenstein win probability is 89 percent
Market-implied probability updates in real time.
Costume Design
Sinners
Win Probability6%
Sinners win probability is 6 percent
Market-implied probability updates in real time.
Costume Design
Hamnet
Win Probability2%
Hamnet win probability is 2 percent
Market-implied probability updates in real time.
Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Win Probability2%
Avatar: Fire and Ash win probability is 2 percent
Market-implied probability updates in real time.
Full Odds Table
Live probabilities and market-implied odds across all Oscar categories.
Best Picture Winner
OpenOne Battle After Another
Market Leader75.5%
1.32x odds
Sinners
13.5%
7.41x odds
Hamnet
4.6%
21.74x odds
Marty Supreme
2.3%
43.48x odds
Best Supporting Actor Winner
OpenSean Penn
Market Leader48.5%
2.06x odds
Stellan Skarsgård
29.5%
3.39x odds
Benicio Del Toro
7.6%
13.07x odds
Jacob Elordi
6.3%
15.75x odds
Delroy Lindo
5.3%
19.05x odds
Best Supporting Actress Winner
OpenTeyana Taylor
Market Leader52.0%
1.92x odds
Wunmi Mosaku
23.3%
4.29x odds
Amy Madigan
20.1%
4.98x odds
Elle Fanning
1.8%
57.14x odds
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
1.1%
95.24x odds
Best Costume Design Winner
OpenFrankenstein
Market Leader89.0%
1.12x odds
Sinners
5.9%
17.09x odds
Hamnet
2.2%
45.45x odds
Avatar: Fire and Ash
1.8%
55.56x odds
| Category | Nominee | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
Best Picture Winner Open Market | One Battle After Another Leader | 75.5% | 1.32x |
Sinners | 13.5% | 7.41x | |
Hamnet | 4.6% | 21.74x | |
Marty Supreme | 2.3% | 43.48x | |
Best Supporting Actor Winner Open Market | Sean Penn Leader | 48.5% | 2.06x |
Stellan Skarsgård | 29.5% | 3.39x | |
Benicio Del Toro | 7.6% | 13.07x | |
Jacob Elordi | 6.3% | 15.75x | |
Delroy Lindo | 5.3% | 19.05x | |
Best Supporting Actress Winner Open Market | Teyana Taylor Leader | 52.0% | 1.92x |
Wunmi Mosaku | 23.3% | 4.29x | |
Amy Madigan | 20.1% | 4.98x | |
Elle Fanning | 1.8% | 57.14x | |
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas | 1.1% | 95.24x | |
Best Costume Design Winner Open Market | Frankenstein Leader | 89.0% | 1.12x |
Sinners | 5.9% | 17.09x | |
Hamnet | 2.2% | 45.45x | |
Avatar: Fire and Ash | 1.8% | 55.56x |
Frequently Asked Questions
Everything you need to know about trading Oscar prediction markets.