Best Picture Outlook
One Battle After Another
Strongest implied probability with a clear spread over the next closest nominee.
Win Probability77%
98th Academy Awards·
Oscars
2026 Predictions
Live Countdown
0Days
:00Hrs
:00Min
:00Sec
Trade on the real-time odds for the 98th Academy Awards. From Best Picture to Costume Design — every category, live.
Best Picture
Who will take home the biggest prize of the night?
Chasing Pack
Top ChallengersWhere the next-best entries sit if the leader loses momentum.
77%AI predictionLeader hold chance
Closest Threat
Sinners
Leader Cushion
57 pts
Challenger Pool
22%
Sinners
19.1% · 57 pts back
5.25x odds
+$425
Hamnet
1.9% · 75 pts back
51.28x odds
+$5,028
Marty Supreme
0.9% · 76 pts back
100.00x odds
+$9,900
AI forecast sits at 77% for the leader. Challenger odds average 52.18x with $100 stakes returning between +$425 and +$9,900.
One Battle After Another
Bet placed • 77% chance
1.31x
Sinners
Bet placed • 19% chance
5.25x
Hamnet
Bet placed • 2% chance
51.28x
One Battle After Another
Bet placed • 77% chance
1.31x
Sinners
Bet placed • 19% chance
5.25x
Hamnet
Bet placed • 2% chance
51.28x
PARIFLOWOne Battle After Another
Resolved • stake $70
+$22
Sinners
Resolved • stake $95
+$404
Hamnet
Resolved • stake $120
+$6,034
One Battle After Another
Resolved • stake $70
+$22
Sinners
Resolved • stake $95
+$404
Hamnet
Resolved • stake $120
+$6,034
Turn Suggestions To Profits
Predict who wins the Oscar and earn profits from guessing outcomes.
Make Prediction
Choose a favorable outcome and place your order.
One Battle After Another
$100+$31
Sinners
$100+$425
Hamnet
$100+$5,028
Marty Supreme
$100+$9,900
One Battle After Another
$100+$31
Sinners
$100+$425
Hamnet
$100+$5,028
Marty Supreme
$100+$9,900
Sinners
$300+$1,275
Hamnet
$300+$15,084
Marty Supreme
$300+$29,700
One Battle After Another
$300+$93
Sinners
$300+$1,275
Hamnet
$300+$15,084
Marty Supreme
$300+$29,700
One Battle After Another
$300+$93
Hamnet
$500+$25,140
Marty Supreme
$500+$49,500
One Battle After Another
$500+$155
Sinners
$500+$2,125
Hamnet
$500+$25,140
Marty Supreme
$500+$49,500
One Battle After Another
$500+$155
Sinners
$500+$2,125
Trade anytime from any device.
All Contenders
4 Total1One Battle After Another
77%2Sinners
19%3Hamnet
2%4Marty Supreme
1%
Trade Best Picture
Current market average for top four nominees sits at 25%. Enter where the spread and payout profile matches your risk target.
Live Market Chart
One Battle…0%
Sinners0%
Hamnet0%
Marty Supr…0%
Same real-time odds feed as the Best Picture event page.
Best Supporting Actor
The race for best supporting performance by an actor.
Best Supporting Actress
The frontrunners for best supporting actress.
Best Costume Design
Which film had the most impressive costumes?
Frontrunner
Costume Design
Frankenstein
Win Probability91%
Frankenstein win probability is 91 percent
Market-implied probability updates in real time.
Costume Design
Sinners
Win Probability5%
Sinners win probability is 5 percent
Market-implied probability updates in real time.
Costume Design
Hamnet
Win Probability3%
Hamnet win probability is 3 percent
Market-implied probability updates in real time.
Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Win Probability0%
Avatar: Fire and Ash win probability is 0 percent
Market-implied probability updates in real time.
Full Odds Table
Live probabilities and market-implied odds across all Oscar categories.
Best Picture Winner
OpenOne Battle After Another
Market Leader76.5%
1.31x odds
Sinners
19.1%
5.25x odds
Hamnet
1.9%
51.28x odds
Marty Supreme
0.9%
111.11x odds
Best Supporting Actor Winner
OpenSean Penn
Market Leader76.5%
1.31x odds
Stellan Skarsgård
14.5%
6.90x odds
Delroy Lindo
7.2%
13.99x odds
Benicio Del Toro
0.9%
105.26x odds
Jacob Elordi
0.8%
133.33x odds
Best Supporting Actress Winner
OpenAmy Madigan
Market Leader49.7%
2.01x odds
Teyana Taylor
27.0%
3.70x odds
Wunmi Mosaku
20.0%
5.00x odds
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
2.9%
33.90x odds
Elle Fanning
0.5%
200.00x odds
Best Costume Design Winner
OpenFrankenstein
Market Leader90.5%
1.10x odds
Sinners
5.0%
20.20x odds
Hamnet
2.7%
37.04x odds
Avatar: Fire and Ash
0.5%
222.22x odds
| Category | Nominee | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
Best Picture Winner Open Market | One Battle After Another Leader | 76.5% | 1.31x |
Sinners | 19.1% | 5.25x | |
Hamnet | 1.9% | 51.28x | |
Marty Supreme | 0.9% | 111.11x | |
Best Supporting Actor Winner Open Market | Sean Penn Leader | 76.5% | 1.31x |
Stellan Skarsgård | 14.5% | 6.90x | |
Delroy Lindo | 7.2% | 13.99x | |
Benicio Del Toro | 0.9% | 105.26x | |
Jacob Elordi | 0.8% | 133.33x | |
Best Supporting Actress Winner Open Market | Amy Madigan Leader | 49.7% | 2.01x |
Teyana Taylor | 27.0% | 3.70x | |
Wunmi Mosaku | 20.0% | 5.00x | |
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas | 2.9% | 33.90x | |
Elle Fanning | 0.5% | 200.00x | |
Best Costume Design Winner Open Market | Frankenstein Leader | 90.5% | 1.10x |
Sinners | 5.0% | 20.20x | |
Hamnet | 2.7% | 37.04x | |
Avatar: Fire and Ash | 0.5% | 222.22x |
Frequently Asked Questions
Everything you need to know about trading Oscar prediction markets.