Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Yemeni forces enter Sanaa?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are November 30, October 31, and December 31.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yemeni forces enter any part of Sanaa, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Yemeni forces" refers to the armed forces of the internationally recognized Government of Yemen under the Presidential Leadership Council, and any armed group operating under or on behalf of it. This includes the Yemeni Armed Forces, the Giants Brigades, the Nation's Shield Forces (also rendered Homeland Shield Forces), the National Resistance Forces, and any other force confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be operating under or on behalf of the internationally recognized Government of Yemen. The armed forces of any other state, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will not qualify on their own; the participation of foreign state forces alongside qualifying Yemeni forces will not disqualify an entry that otherwise meets the terms of this market.
"Sanaa" refers to the city of Sanaa, Yemen, coextensive with the municipality of Amanat Al Asimah, as defined by its official administrative boundaries. Sanaa Governorate is a separate administrative entity, and entry into any part of Sanaa Governorate will not qualify.
"Enter" means that the Yemeni forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Sanaa, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Only operations involving troops on the ground within Sanaa will qualify. An announcement, threat, or claim of Yemeni forces entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.
A force already present in Sanaa that comes to qualify as Yemeni forces by changing allegiance, defecting, or surrendering will not constitute entry.
The entrance of Yemeni emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.
If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying entry cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Yemeni forces entry into the specified territory is not established by this market's resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.