Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?
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The question is whether “Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?” occurs by the stated deadline and under the published conditions.
A Yes outcome requires the stated conditions to be met; No covers the alternative.
The qualifying event, evidence source, cutoff time, and any exceptions are documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican party nominee fails to win one or more of the Senate races listed below. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant races are the currently-scheduled United States Senate races in: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida (Special), Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions.
In the event that the winner of an election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that election will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.