Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
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The question is whether “Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?” occurs by the stated deadline and under the published conditions.
A Yes outcome requires the stated conditions to be met; No covers the alternative.
The qualifying event, evidence source, cutoff time, and any exceptions are documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.