Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Will Hamas agree to disarm?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are November 30, March 31, 2026, December 31, June 30, 2026, February 28, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.