Will any country leave NATO by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Will any country leave NATO?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are December 31, 2025, December 31, 2026, June 30, 2026, December 31, 2027, and June 30, 2027.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.