Ends 2/28/2026

US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?

Name: US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?
Start: 2026-02-22T15:18:07.249Z
End: 2026-02-28T00:00:00.000Z

Will the US military intercept another Iranian drone before February 28? A high-stakes geopolitical showdown looms.

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Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US military downs any Iranian military drone by any means (including kinetic, jammer, etc.) by February 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any drone whose operation is broadly attributed to Iran by a consensus of credible reporting will be considered an “Iranian drone”, regardless of whether it can be definitively confirmed that the drone was operated by the Iranian government or military. Drones whose operation attributed to individuals or forces external to the Iranian military or government, however, including proxy forces, will not count, even if they are an Iran-designed or Iran-produced drone. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.