Question 1

What is a prediction market?

Accepted Answer

A prediction market is a platform where people buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events. The prices reflect the crowd's collective probability of an event happening.

Question 2

How do prediction markets work?

Accepted Answer

Participants trade contracts for specific outcomes. Prices change based on supply, demand, and new information. After the event resolves, winning contracts pay out, while losing contracts become worthless.

Question 3

How is a prediction market different from betting or gambling?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets are focused on forecasting real-world events using collective knowledge. Betting is mostly chance-based, while prediction markets aggregate informed opinions to generate probabilities.

Question 4

How do prices indicate probabilities?

Accepted Answer

The market price of a contract represents the estimated probability of the outcome. For example, a contract priced at $0.70 suggests a 70% chance of that event occurring.

Question 5

What are the risks and rewards?

Accepted Answer

Rewards: Profit from accurately predicting outcomes; markets often provide highly accurate forecasts.
Risks: Losing your investment if predictions are wrong, low liquidity in some markets, and potential legal restrictions in certain regions.

Outcome	Chance	Trade
	100%
	50%
	50%
	0%
	0%
	0%

Outcome	Chance	Trade
	100%
	50%
	50%
	0%
	0%
	0%

Outcome	Chance	Trade
	100%
	50%
	50%
	0%
	0%
	0%

Outcome	Chance	Trade
	100%
	50%
	50%
	0%
	0%
	0%

NBA Rookie of the Year

NBA Rookie of the Year

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Top outcomes

Order book

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NBA Rookie of the Year

NBA Rookie of the Year

Top outcomes

Top outcomes

Order book

Resolution rules

AI analysis

Discussion

Frequently Asked Questions