Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are March 31, 2026, June 30, 2026, December 31, April 30, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between December 16, 2025 and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.