France declares state of emergency by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “France declares state of emergency?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are October 21, December 31, and October 31.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence).
Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count.
A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify.
A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.