Erdoğan out by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Erdoğan out?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are December 31, 2026 and December 31, 2027.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.