Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
Amount
Buy
The outcomes compare the listed numeric thresholds or ranges for “Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?”
The listed thresholds or ranges are ↑ 1550, ↑ 1600, ↑ 1650, and ↑ 1700.
The measured value, observation time, source, and treatment of boundary values are defined in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".