Anthropic lab leak by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Anthropic lab leak?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are June 30, 2027 and December 31, 2026.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required.
Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.