
Each outcome asks whether “GPT-6 released?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are June 30, 2026, August 14, 2026, December 31, 2025, July 31, 2026, December 31, 2026, September 30, 2026, November 30, 2026, October 31, 2026, March 31, 2026, August 7, 2026, August 21, 2026, August 31, 2026, and September 15, 2026.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
may 25, 2026 · 19:38 GMT+3
oct 1, 2026 · 6:59 GMT+3
oct 1, 2026 · 7:29 GMT+3
Daily volume
+3.1% 24h$78.5K
Sep 4 volume
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via beta abierta or inscripciones abiertas en lista de espera continua. A beta cerrada or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Each outcome asks whether “GPT-6 released?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are June 30, 2026, August 14, 2026, December 31, 2025, July 31, 2026, December 31, 2026, September 30, 2026, November 30, 2026, October 31, 2026, March 31, 2026, August 7, 2026, August 21, 2026, August 31, 2026, and September 15, 2026.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
may 25, 2026 · 19:38 GMT+3
oct 1, 2026 · 6:59 GMT+3
oct 1, 2026 · 7:29 GMT+3
Daily volume
+3.1% 24h$78.5K
Sep 4 volume
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via beta abierta or inscripciones abiertas en lista de espera continua. A beta cerrada or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
August 14, 2026· $78 | 1% | |
December 31, 2026· $14K | 100% | |
September 30, 2026· $14K | 99% | |
November 30, 2026· $14K | 100% |
August 14, 2026· $78 | 1% | |
December 31, 2026· $14K | 100% | |
September 30, 2026· $14K | 99% | |
November 30, 2026· $14K | 100% |