Will Republicans lose any "Solid / Likely R" House race?
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The question is whether “Will Republicans lose any "Solid / Likely R" House race?” occurs by the stated deadline and under the published conditions.
A Yes outcome requires the stated conditions to be met; No covers the alternative.
The qualifying event, evidence source, cutoff time, and any exceptions are documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, a candidate who is not a Republican wins one or more of the U.S. House races listed below. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant races are the currently-scheduled 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in the following 177 congressional districts, which are rated "Solid Republican" or "Likely Republican" by the Cook Political Report as of November 2, 2026: AL-01, AL-03, AL-04, AL-05, AL-06, AR-01, AR-02, AR-03, AR-04, AZ-05, AZ-08, AZ-09, CA-05, CA-20, CA-23, CA-40, CO-03, FL-01, FL-02, FL-03, FL-04, FL-05, FL-06, FL-08, FL-11, FL-12, FL-15, FL-16, FL-17, FL-18, FL-19, FL-21, FL-26, FL-28, GA-01, GA-03, GA-07, GA-08, GA-09, GA-10, GA-11, GA-12, GA-14, IA-04, ID-01, ID-02, IL-12, IL-15, IL-16, IN-02, IN-03, IN-04, IN-06, IN-08, IN-09, KS-01, KS-02, KS-04, KY-01, KY-02, KY-04, KY-05, LA-01, LA-03, LA-04, LA-05, LA-06, MD-01, MI-01, MI-02, MI-05, MI-09, MN-06, MN-07, MN-08, MO-02, MO-03, MO-04, MO-06, MO-07, MO-08, MS-01, MS-03, MS-04, MT-02, NC-03, NC-05, NC-06, NC-07, NC-08, NC-09, NC-10, NC-13, NC-14, ND-AL, NE-01, NE-03, NJ-02, NJ-04, NY-01, NY-02, NY-11, NY-23, NY-24, OH-02, OH-04, OH-05, OH-06, OH-08, OH-12, OH-14, OK-01, OK-02, OK-03, OK-04, OK-05, OR-02, PA-09, PA-11, PA-13, PA-14, PA-15, PA-16, SC-02, SC-03, SC-04, SC-05, SC-07, SD-AL, TN-01, TN-02, TN-03, TN-04, TN-05, TN-06, TN-07, TN-08, TN-09, TX-01, TX-02, TX-03, TX-04, TX-05, TX-06, TX-08, TX-09, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-17, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-25, TX-26, TX-27, TX-31, TX-32, TX-36, TX-38, UT-02, UT-03, UT-04, VA-06, VA-09, WA-04, WA-05, WI-05, WI-06, WI-07, WI-08, WV-01, WV-02, WY-AL.
The winner of each race is determined including any runoff or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions.
In the event that the winner of an election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that election will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.