New Anthropic model released before IPO?
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The question is whether “New Anthropic model released before IPO?” occurs by the stated deadline and under the published conditions.
A Yes outcome requires the stated conditions to be met; No covers the alternative.
The qualifying event, evidence source, cutoff time, and any exceptions are documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic makes a new AI model available to the general public between market creation and the moment Anthropic shares begin trading on their first trading day. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Anthropic has not completed an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on whether a qualifying model is made available to the general public between market creation and that date and time.
A model made available to the general public on Anthropic's first trading day will qualify only if it is made available before Anthropic shares begin trading.
A qualifying model must be a new Anthropic AI model whose name or version designation had not been announced or released before market creation, such as Claude Fable 5.2, Claude Opus 5.6, Claude Sonnet 5.6, or Claude Haiku 5.6, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6 or a model in a new family. Models that retain the name and version designation of a model announced or released before market creation, such as Claude Fable 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, or Claude Mythos 5.1, including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, or expansion of access to them, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
Anthropic's first trading day is the first day on which Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading, as confirmed by official announcements from Anthropic and the relevant exchange.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.