

The question is whether “Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?” occurs by the stated deadline and under the published conditions.
A Yes outcome requires the stated conditions to be met; No covers the alternative.
The qualifying event, evidence source, cutoff time, and any exceptions are documented in the Resolution Rules below.
Waiting for trades
Last 30 days
$5
30-day total
$0.17
Daily average
Every trader on this market, last 7 days
—
24h volume, market-wide
Market-wide, by position value
Eki 27, 2026 · 21:34 GMT+3
Oca 1, 2027 · 07:59 GMT+3
Oca 1, 2027 · 08:29 GMT+3
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge's decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as he is held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
- Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) - Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant - Being formally booked or processed following detention - Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station - Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with his attorney - Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention:
- An arrest warrant being issued but not executed - Being questioned or interviewed without arrest - Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.