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Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Name: Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
Start: 2026-04-07T07:35:36.571Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Volume$276K•EndsDec 31, 2026•222d 5h left

Pariflow

April 30· $216K	33%
December 31· $50K	8%
June 30· $10K	2%

April 30· $216K

33%

December 31· $50K

June 30· $10K

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.