Ends 12/31/2026

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Name: US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Start: 2026-02-21T12:40:14.785Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Will Trump's administration officially recognize Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by 2026? A pivotal geopolitical prediction to watch.

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Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.