Nuclear weapon detonation by...?

    Nuclear weapon detonation by...?

    Will a nuclear weapon detonate in the next 8 months? Brace for a potentially world-altering event.

    Market Volume

    $6.6K

    Total traded

    End Date

    Jun 30, 2026

    78d 9h left

    Most likely outcomes

    Choose an outcome from the board, then trade it in the ticket.

    Top outcomes ranked by current chance.

    3 outcomes
    OutcomeChanceTrade
    19%
    12%
    5%
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    PariflowPARIFLOW
    Resolution Rules

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between November 5, 2025 ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.

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