How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Name: How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
Start: 2026-02-11T00:06:05.405Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Predict the seismic shakeup of 2026! Will the year bring a surge of major earthquakes or a quieter-than-usual tectonic year? Place your bets!

Market Volume

$10.3K

Total traded

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

262d 9h left

Most likely outcomes

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Top outcomes ranked by current chance.

7 outcomes

Outcome	Chance	Trade
	28%
	25%
	22%
	13%
	6%

PARIFLOW

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.