Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

    Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

    Will 2026 break records or fall short? Bet on where it lands among the hottest years ever recorded!

    Market Volume

    $23.0K

    Total traded

    End Date

    Dec 31, 2026

    262d 9h left

    Most likely outcomes

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    Top outcomes ranked by current chance.

    6 outcomes
    OutcomeChanceTrade
    52%
    31%
    8%
    7%
    3%
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    Resolution Rules

    This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

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