JD Vance resigns as Vice President by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “JD Vance resigns as Vice President?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are December 31, 2027 and December 31, 2026.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market resolves to “Yes” if J.D. Vance’s resignation as U.S. Vice President is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The resignation will be considered to be announced when J.D. Vance, the White House, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that J.D. Vance has resigned or will resign from the position of U.S. Vice President. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when J.D. Vance formally leaves the position.
Only announcements of J.D. Vance's departure through self-initiated means qualify. Self-initiated means include retirement, mutual agreement, or other self-initiated departures, including a resignation he was asked or directed to submit. Announcements of firing, dismissal, or other externally-imposed departures do not qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a resignation intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to J.D. Vance’s duties as U.S. Vice President do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that J.D. Vance is considering or open to resigning; conditional statements that J.D. Vance will resign only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that J.D. Vance plans to resign; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than J.D. Vance, the White House, or their respective authorized representatives.
As J.D. Vance holds the position of U.S. Vice President on a predefined term scheduled to end on January 20, 2029, only announcements that he will resign the position prior to the scheduled end of his term qualify.
If J.D. Vance formally resigns as U.S. Vice President before the end of his scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the resignation by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will immediately resolve to “No” if J.D. Vance is either promoted to be President of the United States or leaves office for any reason other than resignation.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from J.D. Vance and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.