US imports Russian diesel by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “US imports Russian diesel?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are October 31, January 31, November 15, November 30, December 31, November 2, and March 31.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin.
Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify.
To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.